Decision Index
Out-calibrate the crowd.
Every wallet that answered a Clef round, ranked by mean score: the share of a perfect card it earned, where 1.00 is a perfect card. Calibrated means your 70% comes true seven times in ten.
- Wallets
- Entries
- Settled rounds
- Staked
Leaderboard
| # | Wallet |
|---|
The first hour is open
Nobody has answered a round yet. The index fills in as soon as the first round settles.
The chain's answers
Recent rounds
Near a line the chain answers with a split, the way a forecast does, so one small trade cannot flip a close call. How the chain answers
Calibration
When you say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
Each dot gathers every probability that fell in a 10% band and asks how often that option came true. A calibrated forecaster sits on the dashed diagonal; above it is underconfident, below it is overconfident.
- Forecasts
- Calibration error, everyone
- Calibration error, you
Every option of every settled entry counts once, weighed against the chain's answer: a weekday card gives nine forecasts, a weekend card six. Connect a wallet to draw your own curve beside everyone's.